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With the recent approval by the FDA of the first disease-modifying drug for Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), personalized medicine will be increasingly important for appropriate management and counseling of patients with AD and those at risk. The growing availability of clinical biomarker data and data-driven computational modeling techniques provide an opportunity for new approaches to individualized AD therapeutic planning. In this paper, we develop a new mathematical model, based on AD cognitive, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and MRI biomarkers, to provide a personalized optimal treatment plan for individuals. This model is parameterized by biomarker data from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort, a large multi-institutional database monitoring the natural history of subjects with AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Optimal control theory is used to incorporate time-varying treatment controls and side-effects into the model, based on recent clinical trial data, to provide a personalized treatment regimen with anti-amyloid-beta therapy. In-silico treatment studies were conducted on the approved treatment, aducanumab, as well as on another promising anti-amyloid-beta therapy under evaluation, donanemab. Clinical trial simulations were conducted over both short-term (78 weeks) and long-term (10 years) periods with low-dose (6 mg/kg) and high-dose (10 mg/kg) regimens for aducanumab, and a single-dose regimen (1400 mg) for donanemab. Results confirm those of actual clinical trials showing a large and sustained effect of both aducanumab and donanemab on amyloid beta clearance. The effect on slowing cognitive decline was modest for both treatments, but greater for donanemab. This optimal treatment computational modeling framework can be applied to other single and combination treatments for both prediction and optimization, as well as incorporate new clinical trial data as it becomes available. 

With the explosive growth of biomarker data in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) clinical trials, numerous mathematical models have been developed to characterize disease-relevant biomarker trajectories over time. While some of these models are purely empiric, others are causal, built upon various hypotheses of AD pathophysiology, a complex and incompletely understood area of research. One of the most challenging problems in computational causal modeling is using a purely data-driven approach to derive the model’s parameters and the mathematical model itself, without any prior hypothesis bias. In this paper, we develop an innovative data-driven modeling approach to build and parameterize a causal model to characterize the trajectories of AD biomarkers. This approach integrates causal model learning, population parameterization, parameter sensitivity analysis, and personalized prediction. By applying this integrated approach to a large multicenter database of AD biomarkers, the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, several causal models for different AD stages are revealed. In addition, personalized models for each subject are calibrated and provide accurate predictions of future cognitive status.

 

The gap between chronological age (CA) and biological brain age, as estimated from magnetic resonance images (MRIs), reflects how individual patterns of neuroanatomic aging deviate from their typical trajectories. MRI-derived brain age (BA) estimates are often obtained using deep learning models that may perform relatively poorly on new data or that lack neuroanatomic interpretability. This study introduces a convolutional neural network (CNN) to estimate BA after training on the MRIs of 4,681 cognitively normal (CN) participants and testing on 1,170 CN participants from an independent sample. BA estimation errors are notably lower than those of previous studies. At both individual and cohort levels, the CNN provides detailed anatomic maps of brain aging patterns that reveal sex dimorphisms and neurocognitive trajectories in adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI, N  = 351) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, N  = 359). In individuals with MCI (54% of whom were diagnosed with dementia within 10.9 y from MRI acquisition), BA is significantly better than CA in capturing dementia symptom severity, functional disability, and executive function. Profiles of sex dimorphism and lateralization in brain aging also map onto patterns of neuroanatomic change that reflect cognitive decline. Significant associations between BA and neurocognitive measures suggest that the proposed framework can map, systematically, the relationship between aging-related neuroanatomy changes in CN individuals and in participants with MCI or AD. Early identification of such neuroanatomy changes can help to screen individuals according to their AD risk. 

In the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) continuum, the prodromal state of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) precedes AD dementia and identifying MCI individuals at risk of progression is important for clinical management. Our goal was to develop generalizable multivariate models that integrate high-dimensional data (multimodal neuroimaging and cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, genetic factors, and measures of cognitive resilience) for identification of MCI individuals who progress to AD within 3 years. Our main findings were i) we were able to build generalizable models with clinically relevant accuracy (~93%) for identifying MCI individuals who progress to AD within 3 years; ii) markers of AD pathophysiology (amyloid, tau, neuronal injury) accounted for large shares of the variance in predicting progression; iii) our methodology allowed us to discover that expression ofCR1(complement receptor 1), an AD susceptibility gene involved in immune pathways, uniquely added independent predictive value. This work highlights the value of optimized machine learning approaches for analyzing multimodal patient information for making predictive assessments.